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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-05 05:14:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 02:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 03:06:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-07-05 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 Douglas is hanging on as a tropical storm. After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to the northeast of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern T-number of 2.5 from TAFB. Douglas is currently over cold 23C waters and in a stable airmass. These hostile conditions should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours. This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast. The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system on a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days. The track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and is very near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-05 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 22.4, -119.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 26
2014-07-05 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...DOUGLAS REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 119.1W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINS NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-07-05 04:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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