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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-07-04 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-07-04 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed. Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days according to the global model guidance. The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit. Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-07-04 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-07-04 04:31:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 117.1W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 117.1W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-04 04:30:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 20.9, -117.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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