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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-07-03 22:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-03 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 14:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 14:33:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and possibly an ASCAT pass later today. Regardless, cold water and dry, stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast by day 5. The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt. A mid-level high centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift westward during the next 48 hours. At the same time, mid-level ridging will build over the western United States. Douglas is therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after 36 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-03 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 20.6, -116.6 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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