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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...DOUGLAS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 116.6W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND THEN DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031433 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-03 11:14:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 08:47:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:06:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-07-03 10:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030848 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle, thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation, including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but just south of the consensus model TVCE. Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with most of the available intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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