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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-03 10:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 20.4, -116.5 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 19
2014-07-03 10:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 116.5W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-07-03 10:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030846 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-07-03 10:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-07-03 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030237 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with -70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast portion of the cyclone. A compromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An intruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing sea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is forecast to become a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low near the 36 hr period. Douglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending across the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight increase in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually strengthens. By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a remnant low and continue on this general track through the remainder of the forecast. The official NHC forecast track is slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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