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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 15
2014-07-02 10:52:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020852 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 116.0W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DOUGLAS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-07-02 10:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-07-02 10:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.0W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.0W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.8N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.2N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-02 05:15:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 02:59:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 03:06:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-07-02 04:56:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020256 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Douglas has maintained a tight curved band of deep convection near its center, primarily within the western semicircle. Consequently, the TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI numbers have remained the same and thus the intensity is kept at 40 kt. While Douglas should remain under light vertical shear for the next few days, the gradually cooling waters and drier stable air that the cyclone will encounter should cause the convection to diminish and, in about 36-48 hours, eventually to cease. The large size of Douglas suggests that it will wind down gradually, even if the convection dissipates quicker than expected. The intensity forecast is based upon the tight consensus of intensity models and is nearly the same as that in the previous advisory. Douglas has been meandering this evening with a longer-term motion of 340/2. The steering for the cyclone has nearly collapsed as the mid-level ridge to the north has weakened due to a short-wave trough impinging upon it. As Douglas becomes a weaker, shallower vortex, it should be advected faster toward the west-northwest in about 3 days and then westward by day 5 in the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered multi-model consensus - TVCE - with somewhat less weight placed upon the ECMWF model, since this model has had a distinct equatorward bias for Douglas. This track prediction is slightly poleward of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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