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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-01 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MOVING MORE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 19.2, -115.9 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 13
2014-07-01 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012041 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DOUGLAS MOVING MORE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 115.9W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND DOUGLAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-07-01 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 012038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 115.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 115.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-01 17:15:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 14:44:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 15:06:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-07-01 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011447 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud pattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling of cloud top temperatures northwest of the center. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to lower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during the next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 310/06. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further reduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during the next couple of days. Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in 2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed by some increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the north in the direction of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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