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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2014-07-01 16:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)

2014-07-01 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOUGLAS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH BUT HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 19.1, -115.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 12

2014-07-01 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DOUGLAS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH BUT HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 115.9W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY...AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND DOUGLAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 12

2014-07-01 16:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 011443 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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