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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-01 10:43:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010843 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over the past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen southeast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain low, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few days. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large circulation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by day 4. The initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of Douglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift west-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by the trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-01 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 18.8, -115.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 11
2014-07-01 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DOUGLAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 115.3W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-07-01 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010842 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-07-01 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010841 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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