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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-01 05:15:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 03:03:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 03:06:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-07-01 04:55:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010254 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Tropical Storm Douglas has developed some well-defined inner core banding features this evening, as seen in the GOES-West geostationary imagery. Correspondingly, the intensity estimates have inched upward: a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications averages 40 kt, the Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 43 kt, and the CIMSS AMSU technique suggests 48 kt. The initial intensity is thus set at 40 kt, but this could be slightly low. It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the sea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping steadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear. The intensity guidance is tightly clustered and suggests gradual weakening after 24 h until loss of deep convection in about 3-4 days causes the system to become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is slightly above the previous advisory, mainly due to the short-term intensity trend. Douglas is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a broad ridge to its north, which should weaken within the next day or so as a short-wave trough approaches from the west. When this occurs, the steering flow becomes almost negligible and Douglas is likely to drift slowly west-northwestward between 24 and 72 h. By days 4 and 5, the remnant low of Douglas will accelerate westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon TVCE - the variable consensus model - and is slightly north of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.7N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-01 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 18.4, -114.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 10
2014-07-01 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010254 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...DOUGLAS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 114.9W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-07-01 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.9W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.9W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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