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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-07-01 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010254 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 90 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA CLARION 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-06-30 23:09:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 20:38:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 21:04:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-30 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 17.7, -114.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-06-30 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-06-30 16:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301434 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours. The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the convective banding features being well removed from the center. The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas' forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE. Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days. After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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