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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-06-30 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:33:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:31:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-06-30 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Douglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory package. The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but continues to have limited deep convection near its center. The current intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass. This is only slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS. Latest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the initial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous estimates. Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas. The global models show a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so. This should result in an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or northwest. Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens somewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering by the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed. The latest official forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close to the newest dynamical model consensus. The storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there is well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system. Vertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given the favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-06-30 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 6 31(37) 6(43) 1(44) 2(46) X(46) 1(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-30 10:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS SLOWS DOWN... ...HAS NOT INTENSIFIED... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 16.6, -113.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 7
2014-06-30 10:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...DOUGLAS SLOWS DOWN... ...HAS NOT INTENSIFIED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 113.1W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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