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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-06-30 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300830 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 113.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 113.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-06-30 05:07:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 02:47:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Jun 2014 03:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-06-30 04:48:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300247 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved during the past several hours. Deep convection has increased near the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 kt. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the eastern Pacific. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Later in the period, Douglas should turn westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north Douglas gets before making the westward turn. For now, the NHC track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model envelope. This is close to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. The main inhibiting factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. This should cause gradual weakening and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-30 04:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 16.4, -113.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 6
2014-06-30 04:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 113.0W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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