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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)

2019-07-12 05:04:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 the center of Barry was located near 27.9, -89.4 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 7

2019-07-12 05:04:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120303 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 7...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 CORRECTED STORM SURGE WATCH SECTION ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 89.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Intracoastal City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Shell Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the south of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 7

2019-07-12 05:03:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120302 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 CORRECTED STORM SURGE WATCH SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 89.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 89.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 89.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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