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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2019-07-11 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 111452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) X(19) 1(20) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 9(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 12(34) 1(35) 1(36) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) BURAS LA 34 1 7( 8) 16(24) 11(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 25 31(56) 10(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 18(24) 2(26) X(26) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 18(36) 11(47) 2(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 36(40) 21(61) 7(68) 3(71) X(71) 1(72) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 8(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 22(33) 16(49) 2(51) X(51) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 22(45) 11(56) 1(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 23(35) 2(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 17(48) 2(50) X(50) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 15(50) 2(52) X(52) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 13(33) 6(39) 1(40) X(40) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 1(18) 1(19) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) 3(32) X(32) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) 2(37) X(37) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 16(33) 10(43) 1(44) 1(45) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) X(24) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) 2(22) X(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 2(25) X(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 10(28) 2(30) X(30) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)

2019-07-11 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 the center of Barry was located near 27.8, -88.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 5

2019-07-11 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO SHELL BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO SHELL BEACH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 88.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 88.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 5

2019-07-11 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans. A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 88.7 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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