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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-06-20 16:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 UTC JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ALREADY INLAND...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BARRY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS TRAPPED SOUTH OF NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.6N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2013-06-20 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 201432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 28 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 74 56 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 16 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)

2013-06-20 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -96.6 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 13

2013-06-20 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 ...BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 96.6W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARRY MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AROUND 8 AM CDT...1300 UTC...WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 MPH...75 KM/H. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND BARRY SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 13

2013-06-20 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 96.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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