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Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2013-06-20 10:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 200834 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0900 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 27 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 52 54 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 47 19 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)

2013-06-20 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BARRY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -96.2 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 12

2013-06-20 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 ...BARRY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 96.2W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN A FEW HOURS....AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND BARRY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 12

2013-06-20 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0900 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 96.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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