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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-06-20 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics
2013-06-20 01:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 23:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 10A
2013-06-20 01:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192353 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS A WIND GUST TO 44 MPH...71 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE APPROACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics
2013-06-19 23:07:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 20:43:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-06-19 22:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192043 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE. BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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