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Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 10
2013-06-19 22:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 95.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SINCE RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-06-19 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 192043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 14 34 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 29 52 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 68 33 19 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 37 5(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) VERACRUZ MX 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-06-19 22:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics
2013-06-19 20:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:45:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:03:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-19 20:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:45 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -95.1 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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