je.st
news
Tag: bud
Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-11 13:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE BUD WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST WITH 115-MPH WINDS... As of 6:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 16.4, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Tags: summary
bud
hurricane
ep3ep032018
Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 7A
2018-06-11 13:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 111132 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...HURRICANE BUD WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST WITH 115-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 106.5W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 106.5 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday, and a slow north-northwest motion should continue into mid-week. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A ship report indicates that tropical-storm-force winds are occuring just offshore of the tropical storm watch area. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
advisory
bud
Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-11 10:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 08:37:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 09:34:21 GMT
Tags: graphics
bud
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-06-11 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110833 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has recently become less distinct. The intensity estimate of 90 kt is based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher. Bud should remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today, and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a slow weakening trend thereafter. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Significantly cooler waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land area. The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States is expected to persist for the next few days. Bud is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward the north-northwest in 1-2 days. Around that time, the steering flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is forecast to slow to 3-4 kt. Later in the forecast period, the ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little faster toward the Baja peninsula. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on data from the latest ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
bud
Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-06-11 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110833 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 6(34) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 7(33) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 18(33) 4(37) X(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 5(25) 1(26) 1(27) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) 20N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 12(25) 25(50) 6(56) 1(57) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 12(27) 3(30) 1(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] next »