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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-11 10:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 16.3, -106.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 7
2018-06-11 10:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...BUD LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 106.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday and slow north-northwest motion should continue into mid-week. On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast today, and Bud could become a major hurricane later today. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-06-11 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC MON JUN 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-11 07:56:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 05:56:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jun 2018 03:34:45 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-11 07:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 the center of Bud was located near 16.2, -105.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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