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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-06-10 22:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 102037 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-10 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 14:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 14:33:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-10 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Recent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is better organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature. Although Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support hurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory. The environment is quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid intensification indexes suggest that this process will occur during the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that Bud's inner core structure is improving. The official forecast calls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus numerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. This motion should keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right of the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast within the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. All interests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud. Even if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-06-10 16:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101431 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 25(37) 7(44) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 23(33) 7(40) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 10(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 20(33) 8(41) 1(42) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 1(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 5(24) X(24) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 12(28) 3(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 80 3(83) X(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 105W 50 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 8( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 7(34) 2(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 8(10) 9(19) 5(24) 5(29) 2(31) X(31) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 31(49) 16(65) 1(66) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 1(26) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 20(31) 7(38) 1(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-10 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 the center of Bud was located near 14.7, -103.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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