je.st
news
Tag: bud
Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 4
2018-06-10 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 ...BUD FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 103.5W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, all interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes should closely monitor the progress of Bud. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 103.5 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some slowing of forward speed is expected through Tuesday. This track will keep the core of Bud well off the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud has the chance to strengthen rapidly during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bud will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 2 to 3 days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-06-10 16:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 101431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-10 10:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 08:50:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 08:50:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
bud
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-10 10:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over the southeastern portions of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is low shear over the storm and the ocean waters are very warm. These environmental factors should continue to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a hurricane within a day or so. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance. As noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification, especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about 310/8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the high. This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula later in the week. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity forecasts. Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of the coast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-06-10 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100841 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 10(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 9(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 9(33) 2(35) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 12(23) 7(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 42 52(94) X(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 105W 50 1 54(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 105W 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 10(31) 3(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 7(20) 7(27) 3(30) 1(31) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 24(33) 17(50) 5(55) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 9(33) 3(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »