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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-10 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM BUD FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 the center of Bud was located near 12.9, -102.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 2

2018-06-10 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 100232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM BUD FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 102.0W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 575 MI...920 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 102.0 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the north-northwest should begin in a couple of days. This track will keep the core of Bud well off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bud will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 2 to 3 days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2018-06-10 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 100232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 3(24) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 7 78(85) 8(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 105W 50 X 33(33) 19(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 64 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 9(23) 4(27) X(27) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 7(22) 4(26) X(26) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 10(21) 4(25) X(25) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 24(47) 7(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 16(37) 4(41) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-06-10 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 100231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 102.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 102.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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