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Hurricane Franklin Public Advisory Number 14A
2017-08-10 07:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100541 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017 ...FRANKLIN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 96.7W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico south of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. Franklin is moving a little south of west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. During the past hour, the center of Franklin made landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz near the town of Lechuguillas. The center is expected to move farther inland during the next several hours. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the coast within the Hurricane Warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Franklin Graphics
2017-08-10 04:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Aug 2017 02:49:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Aug 2017 03:23:19 GMT
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Hurricane Franklin Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-08-10 04:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100246 TCDAT2 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Satellite images show some increase in organization of the cloud pattern with very deep convection near the center and outflow in all quadrants, suggesting that the cyclone is strengthening. An eye has not been depicted in conventional imagery, but it was noted in earlier microwave data. Intensification was confirmed by an Air Force plane which reported an earlier peak of 89 kt at flight level and a recent peak of 80 kt measured by the SFMR. The flight level winds were lower in the most recent leg. The minimum pressure was near 981 mb near 0000 UTC, but then rose to 985 mb by 0200 UTC. Based on reports from the plane, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. There is an opportunity for Franklin to pick up a little more strength or fluctuate in intensity before landfall tonight or early Thursday. Once the hurricane moves inland over the high terrain, rapid weakening should begin. Regardless of weakening, the cyclone will likely bring torrential rains with flash flooding and mud slides along its path. Franklin is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is trapped within the easterly flow around a strong high pressure system over Mexico and the southwestern United States. This pattern will force Franklin to move on the same general westward track toward the coast of Mexico and then inland until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.2N 96.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Franklin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-08-10 04:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 100245 PWSAT2 HURRICANE FRANKLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017 0300 UTC THU AUG 10 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) VERACRUZ MX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Franklin (AT2/AL072017)
2017-08-10 04:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 the center of Franklin was located near 20.2, -96.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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