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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-13 23:09:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 20:46:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Oct 2013 21:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-13 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUTER BAND CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT WINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES INDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS GENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT OCTAVE IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 6 KT OF 850-200 MB SHEAR... WHICH EXPLAINS THE NORTHWARD TILT OF THE EYE FEATURE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE TILTED EYE FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE RATHER COMPACT SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...MEANS THE OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11 KT. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND WEAK OCTAVE COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COMPLETELY DECOUPLES. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TCVE AND FSSE MODELS. DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF OCTAVE...THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...PLUS AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DOES NOT WARRANT ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-13 22:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES WELL TO THE WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 the center of OCTAVE was located near 19.2, -112.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 4
2013-10-13 22:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 132045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013 ...OCTAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES WELL TO THE WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 112.7W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-10-13 22:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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