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Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Graphics
2015-09-27 22:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 20:33:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2015 20:50:48 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Forecast Discussion Number 38
2015-09-27 22:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272032 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Ida has lacked organized deep convection for about 15 hours now, and it no longer meets the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Ida is classified as a remnant low and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The circulation of the low has become increasingly elongated today, due to the interaction with a cold front a few hundred n mi to the north of the cyclone. The front is expected to move closer to the remnant low tonight and Monday, and this will likely cause the cyclone to open up into a trough within the next few days. The low is moving slowly westward. A faster west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The latest official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Additional information on the remnants of Ida can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 24.5N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 24.1N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 23.9N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 24.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 24.5N 57.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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ida
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of IDA was located near 24.5, -48.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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at5al102015
Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Public Advisory Number 38
2015-09-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 ...IDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 48.7W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough within the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ida. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2015-09-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 272032 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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