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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 35
2015-09-27 04:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 ...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 47.4W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 47.4 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the west- southwest and an increase in forward speed Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 35
2015-09-27 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 47.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 47.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.8N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.8N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-26 23:11:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 20:32:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 21:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 34
2015-09-26 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 262032 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 There continues to be little change associated with Ida. A small area of pulsing convection is lingering to the east of the exposed low-level center. The circulation remains well organized, however, and mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that winds were in the 25-30 kt range, and since the cyclone has not changed much since then, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The models are quite divergent on the future intensity of Ida. The SHIPS model suggests that the depression could strengthen since the shear is expected to lessen during the next 2-3 days. Conversely, most of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening likely due in part to the abundant dry air near the cyclone. In fact, the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show Ida's circulation becoming elongated or degenerating into a trough within the next few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north of the system. The official forecast follows the previous couple of advisories in maintaining Ida as a depression through the period, however, it would not be surprising if Ida dissipates before then like the GFS and ECMWF models suggest. Ida is gradually turning to the left as predicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is now 320/7 kt. A continued turn toward the west and then southwest is predicted during the next couple of days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. Thereafter, Ida, or its remnants, is expected to move generally westward at a slightly faster forward speed. Although there remains some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree on this general theme. The new official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 24.4N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 24.8N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 24.6N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.1N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 23.6N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 23.4N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.9N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 24.2N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-26 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 26 the center of IDA was located near 24.4, -47.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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