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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 29
2015-09-25 16:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 45.0W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 45.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, and Ida is expected to become a remnant low over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 29
2015-09-25 16:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 45.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 45.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 46.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-25 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 08:38:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 08:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-09-25 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 A few convective cells have been forming near Ida's center during the past several hours, but most of the thunderstorm activity remains displaced more than 150 n mi to the east-northeast due to 20 kt of shear. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB, but it's clear from satellite imagery that the shear and dry air has caused a steady degradation of the cyclone's structure during the past few days. With moderate vertical shear expected to continue and the mid-level relative humidity forecast to drop to between 30 and 40 percent, additional weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Ida could degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast shows the possibility of the maximum winds increasing again by days 3 and 4, but this is the result of a tight pressure gradient between the remnant low and strong high pressure over the north Atlantic--not a restrengthening of Ida's circulation. Based on global model guidance, the remnant low could open up into a trough by day 5, if not sooner. Ida is being steered generally north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt, by a low-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The depression should move northwestward through 48 hours and then abruptly turn westward or west-southwestward during its remnant low stage when strong low-level ridging develops over the north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and shows a slightly faster motion of the remnant low after 72 hours compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.7N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.4N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.4N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 24.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 24.1N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 23.2N 52.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-25 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 25 the center of IDA was located near 21.7, -45.3 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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