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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2015-09-25 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)

2015-09-25 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISORGANIZED IDA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 21.3, -45.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 27

2015-09-25 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250238 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015 ...DISORGANIZED IDA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 45.3W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 45.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion should begin on Friday and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. A slight decrease in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ida could become a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 27

2015-09-25 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250238 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 45.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 45.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.8N 46.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.4N 48.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 24.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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