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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-24 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED IDA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 21.2, -45.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2015-09-24 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 242035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 26
2015-09-24 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 45.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 45.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-24 17:08:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 14:57:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 15:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-09-24 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241448 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 There has been no significant change in the satellite presentation of the cyclone. Ida is a sheared system and consists of a broad circulation with a cyclonically curved convective band around the eastern side. Based on a recent ASCAT pass the initial intenisty has been lowered to 30 kt. The hostile shear environment will likely continue today, but both the operational SHIPS and the experimental SHIPS based on ECMWF fields lower the shear allowing for some restrengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next day or two, and some minor increase of the winds after that time. Ida has begun to move toward the north-northeast at 4 kt. The cyclone will become completely detached from the mid-level trough in about 12 to 24 hours, and will be slowly steered toward the north and north-northwest by the flow surrounding a developing subtropical ridge. After that time, a stronger ridge will force Ida to turn westward with some increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very consistent with this westward turn, however, by then, the status of Ida is highly uncertain. Ida could still be a tropical cyclone as indicated in the NHC forecast or it will be degenerating into a trough as indicated by the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 24.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 24.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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