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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)

2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 20.2, -44.9 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 25

2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 ...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 44.9W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northwestward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 241447 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 25

2015-09-24 16:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 44.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 44.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 44.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.8N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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