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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-09-24 10:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240843 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 Ida's low-level center is exposed to the west of a relatively small cluster of deep convection due to 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear. By themselves, satellite intensity estimates would no longer support Ida's status as a tropical storm, but the partial ASCAT passes from last evening had just enough wind that I'm hesitant to downgrade the system to a tropical depression just yet. Vertical shear is expected to decrease only slightly during the next couple of days, and along with abundant mid-level dry air, the environment will not be particularly favorable for strengthening. The GFDL, which brings Ida to hurricane strength in 4 days, remains an outlier and is discounted as a reasonable solution. Conversely, the ECMWF and GFS global models show Ida weakening as a result of the unfavorable environment, with the GFS even showing the cyclone degenerating to a trough by day 4 or 5. Because of these more believable scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one at the end of the forecast period, and overall is very close to the Florida State Superensemble. Ida had been moving east-southeastward during the past 12 hours, but the current motion estimate is 090/5 kt. Ida remains located within the base of a mid-tropospheric trough, but it should become detached from the trough during the next 24 hours and turn northward as low- to mid-level ridging develops over the eastern Atlantic. Now that the global models have been trending toward a weaker system by days 3 through 5, they show Ida becoming blocked by a surface high over the north Atlantic and moving westward at a faster forward speed by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than and southwest of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5 to account for the model trends, but it is otherwise very similar before those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 19.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.2N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.8N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 21.6N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 22.5N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 23.8N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 23.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-09-24 10:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 240843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 19.6, -45.5 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 24
2015-09-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 ...IDA MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 45.5W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 45.5 West. Ida is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northwestward motion by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2015-09-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 45.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 45.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.8N 45.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.8N 48.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 23.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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