je.st
news
Tag: ida
Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-24 05:08:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 02:31:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 03:04:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
ida
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-09-24 04:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240231 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 Ida is not a well-organized tropical storm. The center is on the western side of a small area of deep convection, with a few banding features noted in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt since a recent partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt. The storm continues to experience moderate-to-strong westerly shear. While the shear could relax somewhat over the next couple of days, very dry air is present in the mid- to upper-levels near and to the northwest of the cyclone, which could prevent Ida from fully taking advantage of the more favorable shear conditions for a few days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one and the intensity consensus. At longer range, some of the models are showing a resumption of the stronger shear, with only the GFDL forecasting significant intensification. Overall, the trend has been toward a less favorable environment at day 5, and the NHC intensity forecast is reduced at that time. Ida is moving eastward at about 4 kt while it remains embedded within the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is expected to lift out tomorrow with a ridge rebuilding over the central Atlantic. This pattern should cause the storm to move to the north by late Thursday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Friday around the ridge. After that time, another mid-latitude trough is expected to affect the cyclone. This feature, however, is not as deep as the last trough, and with the vertical representation of Ida being shallower in the model fields, much of the guidance is only show Ida stalling for a short amount of time rather than turning with the trough. Another ridge builds in by late weekend, which then forces Ida to move west-northwestward and westward by early next week. The guidance has shifted notably westward on this cycle in response to this pattern, and the NHC forecast is shifted that direction at long range, but is still pretty far east of the model consensus due to continuity concerns. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 19.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 21.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.8N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 22.7N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 24.2N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.5N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 24.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-09-24 04:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 240231 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-24 04:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of IDA was located near 19.9, -46.0 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ida
Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 23
2015-09-24 04:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240230 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 ...IDA CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 46.0W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 46.0 West. Ida is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northeast and north should occur tomorrow, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] next »