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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2015-09-24 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240230 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 46.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 46.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 45.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 45.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.2N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 24.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-23 23:04:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 20:32:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 21:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-09-23 22:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 232046 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 CORRECTED INITIAL WIND RADII AND 12 FT SEAS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 46.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 46.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 46.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.7N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 46.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-09-23 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232032 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 Ida's cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the day. The center of the cyclone is located to the west of a small area of deep convection, and the initial intensity is still estimated at 35 kt. Most of the global models indicate that a gradual relaxation of the shear should begin in a day or two, resulting in a little more favorable environment for Ida to re-strengthen. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in intensity beyond 48 hours. This is consistent with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus model. Ida has been drifting generally eastward embedded within the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is expected to lift out and keep the cyclone moving very slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours or so, while embedded within weak steering currents. After that time, Ida is forecast to turn to the north and north-northwest as a subtropical ridge gradually replaces the trough. The NHC forecast has changed very little from the previous one, and is very close to multi-model consensus. One interesting change is that the ECMWF and GFS models had been forecasting Ida to linger for a week or more over the Atlantic as a strong tropical cyclone. However, the most recent runs of both models now show a much weaker system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.9N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 22.5N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 24.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-23 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA DISORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of IDA was located near 19.9, -46.6 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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