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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 22
2015-09-23 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 232032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015 ...IDA DISORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 46.6W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 46.6 West. Ida is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward drift should continue tonight, but a gradual turn toward the north and north- northwest should begin tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-09-23 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 232032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-23 17:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 14:47:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 15:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-09-23 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231446 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 Ida's cloud pattern has deteriorated since yesterday, and the upper-level outflow is very disrupted due to shear. The center of the cyclone has been placed in the middle of a couple of low cloud swirls, and to the west of a small area of deep convection. Based on continuity, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, however, a recent partial ASCAT suggests that the winds could be lower. Both ECMWF and GFS SHIPS intensity models indicate that the shear has peaked, and a gradual relaxation should soon begin. However, it will take 36 to 48 hours for the shear to be low enough to favor re-strengthening. On this basis, only a small increase in intensity is forecast beyond that time. This is consistent with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus model. The cyclone, as anticipated, has become well embedded in the base of an upper-level trough and is drifting eastward or 090 degrees at 4 kt. Most of the global models lift the trough out and keep the cyclone moving very slowly within weak steering currents for the next day or two. After that time, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build over the Atlantic, and this flow pattern will force the cyclone to move toward the north and then to the north-northwest. For the next 3 days or so, the guidance is in good agreement showing a northward turn. The model spread increases after four days, but the general trend is to keep the cyclone moving slowly while is trapped south of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track envelope and is very similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 23.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 25.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 25.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-23 16:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of IDA was located near 20.0, -47.0 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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