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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-09-22 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221433 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 Ida continues to be a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located to the northwest of an area of very deep convection. The upper-level outflow in the southern half of the cyclone has become better defined since yesterday, but it is not existent elsewhere. Dvorak numbers are decreasing and do not support 40 kt at this time. However, I would wait for scatterometer or any other data, if available, to reduce the winds, if necessary. The cyclone is embedded within an uncommon flow pattern. It is located at the southern end of a mid-level trough, which is forcing the cyclone to move east-southeastward at about 7 kt, and also causing shear. The evolution of this trough will be crucial for the future of Ida. Unanimously, global models keep the cyclone drifting generally eastward for the next 2 days or so, while embedded within the trough. After that time, all models forecast the trough to lift out, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge. This forecast pattern should result in a decrease of the shear with favorable conditions for strengthening, and a slow motion of the cyclone toward the north-northwest. It is interesting to note the current agreement of all global models with this scenario, and at long range, the GFS and ECMWF primarily forecast a significant strengthening of Ida. Given the uncommon pattern and the currently hostile environment, the NHC forecast keeps the cyclone with the same intensity for the next day or two, and allows for some intensification once Ida becomes detached from the trough. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and GFS consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 20.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 20.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 20.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-22 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of IDA was located near 20.5, -47.5 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 17
2015-09-22 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 ...IDA MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 47.5W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.5 West. Ida is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-09-22 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 221432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-09-22 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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