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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-22 11:10:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 08:43:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-22 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery indicates that Ida's low-level circulation center is now moving or developing east-southeastward closer to the large mass of deep convection that has been persisting in the southeastern portion of the larger circulation. The initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt, especially now that the low-level center has moved closer to the mid- and upper-level circulations as seen in microwave and conventional satellite images. This intensity is supported by a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is now 105/04 kt. The recent and much anticipated turn to the east-southeast appears to have occurred either due to actual storm motion or due to redevelopment of the low-level center closer to the strong convection. Regardless of the cause in the Ida's recent motion change, the global and regional models are in very good agreement on a continued general slow motion toward the east for the next 48 hours or so as the southern portion of a large mid- to upper-level trough moves across and captures the cyclone. By 72 hours, the trough lifts out to the northeast and releases Ida, allowing the cyclone to move slowly toward the northwest by day 4 and toward the north on day 5. As would be expected in such a weak flow regime, the model guidance is widely divergent after 72 hours with the UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models taking Ida more toward the west-northwest, whereas the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Canadian models take Ida more toward the northwest and north. The one thing that the all of the models do agree on, however, is that Ida is not expected move very quickly during the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast is similar to but slower than the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TCVA and GFEX. Given the uncertainty in exactly when and where the low-level center of Ida will move underneath the mid/upper-level circulation due to fluctuations in the deep-layer vertical shear profiles during the next 3 days, the intensity forecast calls for no significant changes in the strength of the cyclone during that time. By days 4 and 5, however, some gradual strengthening is expected as the vertical shear abates somewhat while Ida is moving over 29C sea-surface temperatures. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.3N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 20.9N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.8N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 25.2N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-22 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA CHANGES DIRECTION... ...NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of IDA was located near 21.3, -48.6 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 16
2015-09-22 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 ...IDA CHANGES DIRECTION... ...NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 48.6W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.6 West. Ida has changed direction and is now moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected today through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-09-22 10:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 220834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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