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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-21 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of IDA was located near 21.2, -48.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 14
2015-09-21 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 ...IDA EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 48.8W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 48.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Ida is forecast to slow down tonight and begin a meandering motion by Tuesday. A slow eastward or southeastward motion is forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-09-21 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 212033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-21 17:10:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 14:40:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-21 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211439 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 Ida has been producing a large cluster of very deep convection overnight and this morning. The tropical cyclone, however, is still being affected by shear as the low-level center can be seen in visible satellite imagery just northwest of the convection, and this was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, which is based on the latest TAFB Dvorak T-number and the recent ASCAT data that revealed winds of around 40 kt. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become a little more conducive for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours and the NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification. After that time, northwesterly shear is expected to increase as an upper-level trough to the northeast of Ida retrogrades westward. This could cause some weakening, but most of the intensity guidance shows little change in strength during this time, and the NHC forecast maintains an intensity of 55 kt from 24 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the global models take the upper-level trough northeastward and develop a more favorable upper-air pattern over the tropical cyclone, which should allow for strengthening by days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models. The forward motion of Ida continues to decrease and is now 330/6 kt. The steering currents around the tropical cyclone are forecast to further weaken during the next day or so as the mid- to upper-level trough retrogrades westward. Ida should become nearly stationary tonight, then meander eastward or east- southeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday as the mid- to upper-level flow becomes northwestward. The dynamical models have come into better agreement on this scenario, including the latest GFS run that shifted eastward and is now close to the ECMWF. After 72 hours, when the trough moves northeastward, Ida should turn northwestward at a faster forward speed. The updated NHC track has been adjusted eastward and is close to a blend of the ECMWF, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.6N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 21.1N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.3N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 21.2N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 20.8N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 22.0N 46.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 24.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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