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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-21 16:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of IDA was located near 20.6, -48.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 13
2015-09-21 16:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 ...IDA EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 48.0W ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 48.0 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A slow meandering motion is forecast to occur on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, then little change in strength is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-09-21 16:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 211437 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-09-21 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 211437 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 48.0W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 48.0W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 46.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-21 10:58:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210858 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 A significant increase in the amount and organization of deep convection has occurred during the past 6 hours. A large CDO-like feature with a connecting curved band in the southern quadrant has developed, and cloud tops have cooled significantly to colder than -80C. However, the low-level circulation center is not embedded in the core of the main convective cloud mass, and is instead located about 30 n mi inside the western portion of the cloud shield. This suggests that some westerly vertical shear still exists. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB using a shear pattern. Recent AMSU and AMSR-2 microwave satellite fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has continued to decrease and is now 330/07 kt. Global models indicate that the subtropical ridge to the north of Ida is rapidly eroding as a broad mid-/upper-level trough to the northeast and east of the cyclone slowly retrogrades westward. Steering currents are forecast to collapse within the next 12-24 hours, resulting in Ida becoming nearly stationary during that time. By 36-48 hours, Ida is expected to become embedded within the western portion of the aforementioned east-west oriented trough and move slowly southeastward through 72 hours or so. After that time, the trough is forecast to weaken, allowing the cyclone to move slowly north-northwestward to northward. The resultant model guidance more closely resembles the proverbial squashed spider pattern, which is usually indicative of slow and meandering motion. The NHC official track forecast follows suit, lying close to the previous one and the consensus model TVCA. Once the low-level center becomes juxtaposed with the mid-/and upper-level circulations, significant strengthening should occur. Given that vertical wind shear values are forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease to near 5 kt within the next 12 hours or so, at least slow and steady intensification should continue for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the west and northwest as the aforementioned trough begins to interact with Ida. The intensity is forecast to decrease from 48-72 hours, followed by re-strengthening as the trough and its associated upper-level shear lifts out to the northeast, leaving Ida in a weak col region. Given that Ida will be over SSTs of at least 29C and within an upper-level cold pool by days 4 and 5, instability should increase and act to regenerate vigorous convection despite mid-level humidity values of near 50 percent. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast and the intensity consensus model IVCN, and is similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM, GFDL, and ECMWF intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 19.8N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.7N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.3N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 21.4N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 21.1N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 20.8N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 21.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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