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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-21 10:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 08:52:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 08:54:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-21 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of IDA was located near 19.8, -47.3 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 12
2015-09-21 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210851 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 ...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 47.3W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 47.3 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A slow meandering motion is forecast to occur on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by slight weakening on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-09-21 10:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 210851 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-09-21 10:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210850 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 47.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 47.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N 48.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.1N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.8N 47.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 47.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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