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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 10
2015-09-20 22:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202044 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 ...IDA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 46.3W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 46.3 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. Ida is forecast to become nearly stationary by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-09-20 22:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 202044 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 46.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 46.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 47.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 48.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 46.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-09-20 22:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 202044 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-20 16:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 14:55:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 14:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-20 16:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 The low-level center of Ida remains exposed to the west of the deep convection, due to moderate westerly shear that has been affecting the tropical cyclone during the past couple of days. A recent ASCAT overpass revealed winds of 35 to 40 kt over the eastern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The ASCAT data also indicate that the area of tropical-storm-force winds is larger than previous estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Ida continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 13 kt. The forward motion of the tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down during the next day or two, as a blocking ridge strengthens to the north of the system over the central Atlantic. All of the dynamical models show Ida becoming stationary or meandering over the central Atlantic between 48 and 96 hours. The NHC forecast follows this scenario and shows the tropical cyclone stationary for a couple of days. Late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to weaken, which should allow a northwestward or northward motion to begin, however, the track guidance is quite divergent at that time. Given the large spread in the guidance late in the period, the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5. The westerly shear that has been affecting Ida is expected to decrease during the next day or so. This should allow for some strengthening, and the NHC forecast is near the IVCN consensus model and the previous advisory. After 48 hours, the global models are suggesting that an upper-level trough to the north of Ida may cause an increase in westerly shear. As a result, the updated official forecast shows no change in intensity late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.2N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 19.5N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 20.4N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 20.8N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.8N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 21.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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