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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-20 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200251 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 42.4W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 42.4W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.8N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.9N 48.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 48.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-19 22:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 20:34:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 20:52:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-19 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 Ida's low-level center has been exposed northwest of the deep convection all day due to about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear is expected to be steady or increase slightly during the next 12-24 hours, so little, if any, strengthening is anticipated in the short term. The shear could then decrease between 36-72 hours as Ida moves beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, but there is high uncertainty as to how the upper-level environment will evolve during the next few days. The intensity models continue to disagree on the future intensity. While the GFDL and HWRF bring Ida to hurricane strength in 2 to 3 days, the SHIPS and LGEM models have actually backed off from this morning's runs and show Ida getting no stronger than about 45 kt through day 5. Since the upper-level environment only seems marginally conducive for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast remains closer to the statistical models and lower than the intensity consensus. Ida has sped up a bit, and the initial motion is 300/12 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging will continue to steer the storm west- northwestward for the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, the steering currents will collapse, and Ida will meander between days 3 through 5. The spread in the track models increases considerably beyond 48 hours, with the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF showing a northeastward turn by day 5, while the GFS and UKMET continue to show a westward motion. Given the large spread in the models, very little motion is indicated in the official forecast at the end of the forecast period. This scenario is the same as that shown in previous forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.6N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.4N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.6N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 18.9N 46.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 20.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 20.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-19 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of IDA was located near 15.6, -40.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 6
2015-09-19 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 ...IDA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 40.8W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 40.8 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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