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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-19 16:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of IDA was located near 14.8, -39.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-09-19 16:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 ...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 39.7W ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 39.7 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast Sunday or Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-19 16:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191433 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 39.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 39.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 39.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 43.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 45.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.3N 46.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-19 11:15:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 08:37:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 09:07:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-19 10:38:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 The overall organization of Ida's cloud pattern continues to increase. Banding features are becoming more prominent in the southern part of the circulation, with a new band forming on the west side. In addition, a burst of convection has been ongoing during the past few hours near the apparent center. Satellite classifications still support an intensity of 35 kt, and this value is used as the initial wind speed. Satellite fixes suggest that the northwestward motion of Ida has sped up to 9 kt this morning. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism for the next couple of days, causing the storm to move to the west-northwest or northwest during that time. Models are in good agreement and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the official forecast then. Beyond 2 days, there is considerable uncertainty on how an amplifying trough over the east-central Atlantic will affect Ida. The cyclone seems likely to slow down due to steering currents collapsing, but there is poor agreement on whether the trough will pick up Ida, sending the storm east-northeastward, or leave the storm behind. For example, the normally reliable ECMWF and GFS models are going in opposite directions at day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a stronger trough solution while the GFS has Ida missing the trough and drifting westward. With so much uncertainty, I have elected to show a stationary Ida after day 3, preferring not to commit to either solution at this time. This forecast blends the previous forecast with the model consensus, although leans more heavily on the former. While the shear near Ida is low for now, most of the global models show an increase during the next day or so. This is expected to somewhat temper future strengthening, although since most of the other environmental factors are still favorable, a gradual intensification is forecast. The long-range intensity prediction, however, is very complex due to the potential interaction of the trough, which yields very different shear profiles, along with dry air aloft and possible upwelling of cooler water as Ida moves slowly. With the track more uncertain than average and these challenging factors, it seems prudent to remain conservative with the wind speed forecast. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, which ends up on the low side of the guidance at days 4/5. It almost goes without saying that these conditions are leading me to have a rather low confidence in the intensity forecast at 72 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 14.4N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 15.3N 39.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.5N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.6N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.9N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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