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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-09-19 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 190835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)

2015-09-19 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of IDA was located near 14.4, -38.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 4

2015-09-19 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 ...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 38.5W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 38.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a northwest to west-northwest track is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 4

2015-09-19 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 38.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 38.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.3N 39.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 42.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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