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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-19 04:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190253 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has been increasing in organization. A primarily convective band over the eastern half of the circulation has been increasing in curvature and the cloud tops are cooling significantly. The initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt in agreement with the latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT value. Westerly shear associated with an upper-level trough, extending from the eastern subtropical Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean, could increase over Ida during the next day or so and slow the cyclone's rate of intensification. Global models agree that a relative reduction in the shear should occur in 2 to 3 days when a piece of the upper-level trough cuts off near the Greater Antilles, which could allow Ida to strengthen, perhaps even more than forecast. Late in the forecast period, the uncertainty in the intensity forecast increases considerably, with the ECMWF calling for more northwesterly shear and less favorable thermodynamic variables in the storm's environment than in the GFS. The new intensity forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one through 72 hours. The forecast after that time is of low confidence and essentially levels Ida's intensity off in agreement with the SHIPS model output. Recent fixes suggest that the cyclone's motion has been more northwesterly (or 305/06) since earlier today. Ida is being steered by east-southeasterly to southeasterly flow underneath a subtropical ridge migrating westward with the cyclone, and some increase in forward speed is predicted by the models during the next day or so. In about 48 hours, a deep-layer trough amplifying southwestward across the eastern Atlantic will cause steering currents surrounding Ida to collapse, which should result in the cyclone's forward motion coming to a halt. With increasing northerly or northwesterly flow aloft, Ida should begin to meander in about 4 days and even drift southward or southeastward by day 5. The new track forecast is adjusted to the right some throughout the period, primarily due to the more northwesterly initial motion but also in the direction of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.7N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.8N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.9N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.1N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.1N 47.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 20.7N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-19 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM IDA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of IDA was located near 13.7, -37.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-19 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM IDA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 37.5W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 37.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-19 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 37.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 37.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.7N 38.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.8N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.1N 47.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 37.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-19 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 190248 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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