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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-17 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 14:43:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 15:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-17 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 719 WTNT45 KNHC 171442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C. The cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an indication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across the north Atlantic. The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is expected to be located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday. The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt. A slightly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus aids. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 47.1N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-17 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 47.1, -32.9 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-17 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 535 WTNT35 KNHC 171441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 ...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.1N 32.9W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 47.1 North, longitude 32.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone or its remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-17 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 322 FONT15 KNHC 171441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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