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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-08-17 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 937 WTNT25 KNHC 171441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 32.9W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 240SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 32.9W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 34.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 160SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.1N 32.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-17 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 08:34:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 08:34:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-17 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 924 WTNT45 KNHC 170832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm despite being over very cool 21 deg C waters. Deep convection remains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the eastern half of the circulation. The system is likely benefiting from a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why Ernesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected. The initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The convective organization is not expected to last much longer as Ernesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be moving into an environment of higher shear. These hostile environmental conditions should cause the system to lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the cyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C. The post-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours. Ernesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt. An even faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until the system merges with the frontal zone. The models remain tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 45.6N 36.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-17 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 906 FONT15 KNHC 170832 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-17 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 45.6, -36.4 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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