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Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

2018-08-17 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 44.1, -38.9 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 8

2018-08-17 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 458 WTNT35 KNHC 170237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.1N 38.9W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 44.1 North, longitude 38.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-08-17 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 970 WTNT25 KNHC 170236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 40.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.1N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

2018-08-16 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 20:36:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-08-16 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 307 WTNT45 KNHC 162034 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the expected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night. Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown

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