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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-05 01:47:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042346 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Atmospheric conditions are becoming less conducive and further development is not expected as the low moves slowly northward and northeastward over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the weekend or early part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while the system drifts slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-05 01:18:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 042318 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-04 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:49:26 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 22
2024-10-04 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Kirk has changed little in structure during the past several hours and remains an impressive hurricane with a well-defined eye inside a central dense overcast. There has been no recent microwave imagery to determine if the apparent outer eyewall seen earlier is still there. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are mostly near 115 kt, so the initial intensity for this advisory is set at that. The initial motion is now 325/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered near 33N 61W. During the next 48 h, the hurricane should recurve through this break and accelerate northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance more or less is the same as seen in the previous advisory, with the exception of a southward nudge near 96 h. The new forecast track also has this nudge, but is otherwise little changed from the previous track. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 h due to the possible eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast again follows the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the GFS model forecast during the extratropical stage. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 23.7N 49.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 23.7, -49.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 22
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 49.4W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 042045 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-10-04 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 The convective structure of Leslie has become better organized this afternoon with a more symmetrical convective shield. There have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes the last several hours to help evaluate the structure further. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T/3.5 and T/4.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory. Leslie is moving slowly west-northwestward at 290/6 kt, and this motion is expected to continue as the storm rounds the subtropical ridge anchored over the east Atlantic. Leslie should continue west-northwestward then turn more northwestward by the end of the weekend with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly well clustered and the NHC track lies near the consensus aids. The intensity forecast has become a little more uncertain with varying model solutions the last few model cycles, especially with the peak intensity and potential weakening towards the middle to end of the period. Northeasterly shear from Kirk has started to weaken over the system this afternoon, and that has likely aided the improved convective pattern. Leslie will be within a favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment for steady strengthening over the next 2 days or so. Beyond that time models begin to plateau the strengthening or start a weakening trend, as Leslie encounters some westerly shear and a drier air mass. There is a notable difference between the GFS and ECMWF in how hostile the environment will be by five days, with the ECMWF showing more shear, a much drier air mass, and a much weaker Leslie. One other issue is that the forecast track is expected to take Leslie over the cold wake left behind from Hurricane Kirk. Given the lowering intensity guidance and varying model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but still lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast may be needed on later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 10.3N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 10.7N 34.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 12.2N 37.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 13.5N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-04 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 10.3, -33.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 10
2024-10-04 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 33.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 33.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics