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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2025-06-17 05:22:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 02:44:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 03:22:37 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2025-06-17 04:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has developed a well-defined circulation, and deep convection has been consolidating near and north of the center. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as the ridge currently steering the system weakens. Although the models are in fair agreement, the complexity of the track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's heading will cause notable differences on where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is generally similar to the previous one. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more than 60 n mi. The environmental conditions are nearly ideal for intensification with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities near or above 80 percent, and SSTs over 29 C for the next 2 or 3 days. Nearly all of the models show the system strengthening significantly, and given the conducive conditions, rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus models and shows the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane before it reaches Mexico. Based on this forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico. Watches will likely be extended westward on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico. 2. The depression will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.2N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2025-06-17 04:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) X(33) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 46(54) 2(56) X(56) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 32(72) 1(73) X(73) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 22(34) 1(35) X(35) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 26(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 04:41:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Jun 16 the center of Five-E was located near 11.2, -92.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2
2025-06-17 04:41:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 92.6W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado and a Tropical Storm Watch east of Bahia De Huatulco to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia De Huatulco to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Bahia De Huatulco A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Five-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Five-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2025-06-17 04:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 024 WTPZ25 KNHC 170240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.6W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 92.6W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-17 01:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 162337TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of Guatemala.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.&&Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.$$Forecaster Gibbs/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-17 01:28:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
118 ABNT20 KNHC 162327TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Graphics
2025-06-17 00:01:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 20:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 21:22:21 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162052 PWSEP5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 10(44) X(44) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 63(77) 2(79) X(79) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) X(40) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 3(51) X(51) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 32(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics