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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-20 01:01:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 192300 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-20 01:00:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 192300 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vicente, located just offshore the Pacific coast of Guatemala. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form tonight or tomorrow while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky


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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

2018-10-19 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 20:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 21:21:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-10-19 22:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined convective banding. The system's quick formation and small size make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity, and the various subjective and objective estimates range from T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB. As a compromise, the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Vicente. As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce further strengthening during the next 48 hours. On one hand, this intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength quickly. On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its circulation. The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days. After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period. It is also possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day period. This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to, the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in early August. Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt. The track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in the next 24-48 hours. After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and northwest on days 3 through 5. The new NHC track forecast is not too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance, which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences, however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario. Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 13.3N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

2018-10-19 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA... ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 the center of Vicente was located near 13.3, -92.2 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 2

2018-10-19 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA... ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 92.2W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 92.2 West. Vicente is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest, with some increase in forward speed, is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6 inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2018-10-19 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 27(29) 12(41) 1(42) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-10-19 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 92.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Earth Observation Campaign Coordinator

2018-10-19 20:27:44| Space-careers.com Jobs RSS

Vacancy in the Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes. ESA is an equal opportunity employer, committed to achieving diversity within the workforce and creating an inclusive working environment. Applications from women are encouraged. Post Earth Observation Campaign Coordinator This post is classified A2A4 on the Coordinated Organisations salary scale. Location ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands Description Earth Observation Campaigns Coordinator in the Earth and Mission Science Division in the Science, Applications and Climate Department, Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes. Duties The postholder reports to the Head of the Campaigns Section in the Earth and Mission Science Division of the Science, Applications and Climate Department. The campaign coordinator is responsible for development and implementation of airborne and ground campaigns leveraging new developments such as UAVs, High Altitude PseudoSatellites or Platforms HAPS to support current and future Earth Observation EO missions including mission design, science consolidation, algorithm development, and calibration and validation of data products. The incumbent is also expected to coordinate scientific advice and support for EO missions lying within their field of expertise. With the support of the Divisions other scientific Sections and the Campaign Coordinators, the postholders specific tasks include supporting in the identification and critical review of requirements from the EO user communities for use of airborne platforms and instrumentation including HAPS in relation to preparation or development of future or current ESA EO missions campaign planning, monitoring of campaign execution and coordination with national and international organisations based on mission requirements and on critical needs originating from all EO Programmes including science and technology needs and new initiatives such as Big Data, Machine Learning, SmallSats and others support end to end implementation of the HAPS pilot project activities encompassing definition of HAPS pilot demonstrations, integration and management of critical requirements and science and technology needs originating from all EO Programmes, and monitoring campaign implementationexecution coordinating data dissemination and data analysis from all activities, and facilitating the successful uptake of the results into EO mission design, development, exploitation and service development as well as use of campaign data use in new EO domains e.g. Big Data, Machine Learning ensuring fitness for purpose with respect to the declared campaign objectives, managing contractual implementation, maintaining consistency with planning and financial constraints, including negotiation of contract changes or corrective action as required liaising and coordinating with the TIA and NAV Directorates on crosscutting elements and activities. The postholder will be expected to work closely with other Sections in the Division and other Earth Observation Departments, Earth Observation Projects, Mission Managers, and to maintain close links with ESA teams involved in preparing future missions and instrument technologies, instrument calibration, product validation, data processing and utilisation and Space 4.0 NewSpace initiatives. As member of the Earth Sciences Division, the postholder is also expected to contribute to mission science tasks based on the needs of the current portfolio of EO missions under study or in development, including supporting the identification and critical review of requirements by the EO science communities being responsible for establishing mission requirements, drafting and maintaining the mission requirements document, ensuring endtoend compliance of performance with requirements running international advisory groups conducting and supervising inhouse and external scientific studies. Technical competencies Knowledge of scientific discipline, including strategic vision of the Earth Observation area Knowledge of space projects, including instrumentation and operations Knowledge of EO science, products, applications and services Behavioural competencies Strategic vision business context Fostering cooperation effective teamworking Planning Organisation Additional requirements An ability to work effectively with industry, engineers and scientists in fostering strong collaborative relationships and to gain credibility and earn respect are important. Strategic thinking and awareness of the wider context for ESA campaign activities are considered important. Willingness to travel for onsite campaign coordination and progress meetings is required. The successful incumbent should possess good communication, problem solving skills and be results oriented. In addition experience in linking remote sensing science to NewSpace developments such as SmallSats, Machine Learning, High Altitude Platforms as well as Earth Observation missions in general are considered an strong assets for the position. Education Applicants should hold a Masters or Doctorate University Degree in an appropriate scientific or engineering field. Other information For behavioural competencies expected from ESA staff in general, please refer to the ESA Competency Framework. The working languages of the Agency are English and French. A good knowledge of one of these is required. Knowledge of another Member State language would be an asset. The Agency may require applicants to undergo selection tests. The closing date for applications is 18 November 2018. If you require support with your application due to a disability, please email contact.human.resourcesesa.int. Please note that applications are only considered from nationals of one of the following States Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Canada and Slovenia. According to the ESA Convention the recruitment of staff must take into account an adequate distribution of posts among nationals of the ESA Member States. When shortlisting for an interview, priority will first be given to internal candidates and secondly to external candidates from underrepresented Member States. see Nationality Targets In accordance with the European Space Agencys security procedures and as part of the selection process, successful candidates will be required to undergo basic screening before appointment. Recruitment will normally be at the first grade in the band A2 however, if the candidate selected has little or no experience, the position may be filled at A1 level. Apply HERE

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-19 19:30:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191730 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E, located just offshore of the Pacific coast of Guatemala. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Berg

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