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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-22 22:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:54:38 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2020-09-22 22:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 222052 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 37(37) 6(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 59(59) 13(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 2 83(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PTX BASQUES 50 X 36(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PTX BASQUES 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 5 79(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 59 37(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SYDNEY NS 50 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SYDNEY NS 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 87 8(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) HALIFAX NS 64 3 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MONCTON NB 34 55 8(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) MONCTON NB 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 48 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) EASTPORT ME 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BAR HARBOR ME 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-22 22:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...GINORMOUS TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 41.1, -64.2 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 42
2020-09-22 22:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 222052 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...GINORMOUS TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.1N 64.2W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km). Buoy 44150, located about 90 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 42 ft (13 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 42
2020-09-22 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 222051 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 64.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. 50 KT.......240NE 120SE 130SW 210NW. 34 KT.......470NE 390SE 270SW 280NW. 12 FT SEAS..660NE 780SE 960SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 64.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...340NE 240SE 210SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 64.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-22 22:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:51:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:51:14 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 43
2020-09-22 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222050 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN.... As of 9:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 34.8, -21.2 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN.... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 21.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 21.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Category: Transportation and Logistics